A good decision is one that remains correct even after a long time and even under changed conditions. Unfortunately, many decisions are no longer be traceable after a few months or years. This is the case if they were not professional made and documented.
When are decisions professional?
Professional decisions need not to be transparent to the rest of the world. But they must be and remain understandable to the person making the decision. This is the case when there is written documentation that describes the decision at the time and documents the facts and judgements used.
It's simple: making sound, professional decisions is hard work. And despite computers, there are not many tools for this kind of work. Because decision making requires real intelligence. But that's what computers still struggle with.
Let's start with the most important thing first: What is a decision? The word stem comes from "to settle a dispute, to determine a controversy," from the Latin word "decidere" wich means to decide, determine, literally to cut off, from the syllable "de" for "off" and "caedere" for "to cut". Among different options, the one that best serves the achievement of the goal is determined - it is decided. Once a decision has been made, all other solutions by the wayside - until they are no longer perceived.
But how are decisions made professionally? There are the following 5 building blocks of a decision:
alternatives and/or options
criteria
evaluations
weightings
methods
Once these five building blocks have been considered and all of them have been given content, one can speak of a professional decision.
1. Alternatives and/or Options
We need to note the difference between alternatives and options. The difference is that one alternative excludes the other alternative. This is not the case with options - at least theoretically, several options could be realized at the same time.
It is better to let the alternatives run under the term "options" - because all options can be alternatives, but not vice versa. The question of whether an option is an alternative remains open.
Alternatives and options may change. New alternatives and options may emerge, or existing ones may disappear. Decisions change as options change.
2. Criteria
Criteria are the characteristics of an option or alternative that we can see, measure or feel. In the case of cars, for example, this is the fuel consumption, when choosing a partner the appearance or when buying a house the price. Criteria apply to all options at the same time. If there are options for which a criterion does not exist, then these options cannot be directly compared with each other.
Criteria are a complex matter. It can happen that new criteria emerge and that existing criteria become unimportant. The quality of a decision can be judged on the basis of the selection of criteria used. The more meaningful criteria there are, the more certain a decision is to be correct in the end. Conversely, it can happen that a decision turns out to be wrong because an important criterion is missing.
3. Ratings
A rating describes the degree to which the criteria are met for all options. In the case of cars, for example, fuel economy can be specified as a criterion for each option.
Some ratings can be quantitatively expressed in concrete numbers. For example, the fuel consumption of a car can be measured in liters per 100 km. If no value can be given as a number, the rating can be classified on a graded scale of suitability. In science, a "Likert scale" is often used for this.
A criterion such as "design" cannot be evaluated quantitatively, so a different approach is used. A comparison of two options for a qualitative criterion (such as design) is called a "pairwise comparison" and is also considered a rating. For this criterion, the rating consists of levels such as "much better than..." or "slightly better than...". - Between five and nine distinctions are used.
4. Weightings
Not all criteria are equally important in making a decision. Therefore, the criteria are "weighted". This can be thought of as a prioritized list in which some criteria carry much more weight than the rest.
We assume that the selected criteria are in order of importance. This means that one criterion is more important than another - or at least equally important. The weighting of the criteria can be uniform, linearly increasing, quadratically increasing or exponential. Depending on the design, the less important criteria are placed further down the list.
5. Methods
There are several methods that can be used to make professional decisions. The term "professional" here means that the decision is calculated and documented in a comprehensible way. A pure "gut decision" is not professional in any way. This does not mean that a "gut feeling" cannot be taken into account.
There are two ways to calculate decisions.
An useful value analysis is the simplest form of comparing alternatives based on criteria. For example, if you want to buy an item and are offered the same item at a higher and a lower price, you will prefer the item with the lower price. The options here are two vendors and the only criterion is price. This concept can be extended to other options and criteria. A simple Excel spreadsheet is a valid approach here.
Another method is called AHP. AHP stands for "Analytic Hierarchy Process" and takes a more nuanced approach. AHP is no longer about fixed values, but about "soft" values. "Soft criteria are criteria such as design, reputation, and reliability.
n practice, two options are compared. For each criterion, a decision can then be made as to which of the options is superior to the other in terms of the criterion and by how much.
Here it becomes clear that this is no longer an objective process. And that is the point. Here, two options or alternatives are compared and their characteristics are evaluated. This can happen in a circle and lead to contradictory statements. This method can make these contradictions visible and still work correctly.
Natural intelligence
It is a labor intensive task to list these 5 components correctly and to fill them with content. Unfortunately, you have to identify as many decision bases as possible and then think about them a lot. Unfortunately, artificial intelligence cannot do this thinking for you.
But it's worth it - try it. A decision that is made professionally, methodically, and documented remains relevant for a long time. Decisions made off the cuff quickly become problems. And problems are the last thing you want.
